November 2008 Tahoe Donner Market Activity
December 3, 2008
From: Gary LaBelle Date: Dec. 3, 2008
Subject: November 2008 Tahoe Donner Market Activity for Single Family Homes
Tahoe Donner is a relatively large community in Truckee with approximately 6000 home sites, nearly 85% of which have been completed – so, statistically it is a good area to choose from to ascertain Truckee market activity and pricing trends. Please contact me if you would like more information about market activity for certain price ranges or similar data for other Truckee/Tahoe housing communities.
The data contained herein is obtained from the Tahoe Sierra MLS. This data is believed to be accurate but must be verified prior to submitting a purchase offer.
The following Figure shows Tahoe Donner Single Family Home activity from Jan 2008 through November 2008.
Figure 1. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Sales
This is positive since inventory is remaining low and not putting pressure on sales prices.
The average home sales in 2005 were 22 homes/month, 15 homes/month for 2006 and 15 homes/month in 2007. Regarding 2008 so far, we had a couple slow months in Jan and Feb but the activity picked up in Mar with 17 sales, Apr with 15 sales, fell a bit in May with 11 sales, 22 homes in Jun 14 in July and a robust 20 in August and September, 29 in October and 11 in November. The good news here is that we are averaging about 20 homes month in sales since Auguts of 2008.
A good indicator for sales activity is the “Days on Market” for an average listing. This peaked in Feb-Mar and declined in April-May but picked up in June to 127 days but fell to 80 days in July. In August this rose slightly to 89 days and dropped to 60 in September but jumped up a bit to 98 in October and 131 in November. This means that on the average it is now taking roughly a bit over 4 months to sell a home in Tahoe Donner.
Conclusion: Compared to other areas, the Tahoe Donner Market is behaving amazingly well by several measures. Inventory continues to be limited, days-on market has remained in the 3-4 month area. And as Figure 2 shows, average and median prices have been increasing except for Oct.
MLS data is available and I encourage the buyer or seller to study the data and arrive at their own conclusions before making a buy or sell decision. Contact me if you would like to see the “raw” data.
Figure 2. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Median and Average Home Price
So, what’s the future hold? Hard to say but it is clear that building activity for spec homes is significantly down from the previous year. Our local market in Tahoe Donner is served by a number of smaller contractors that have reacted quickly to the market conditions by not building more new homes and inflating inventory.
This means there could be fewer new homes on the market and therefore, keep inventory levels lower which should help sales of existing homes.
Other factors that have affected the local market are lending agency repossessions and short sales. Repossessed properties can be “distressed” and therefore could be sold at a discount to the “accepted” market price. In some cases, an alternative to repossession is a short sale where the lending agency will allow the homeowner to sell the property at a price below that of the loan balance and “forgive” the difference. Such activity, if significant in the future, could adversely affect the average price of homes sold.
Call me if you have any questions about the data and graphs!
Figure 3. 2007 and 2008 Year to Date Sales Data
I hope this data, presented in this form was useful to you. For an instant update, or a discussion about condos/townhomes, please call me and I’ll be pleased to provide you with the most recent data available.
Caution should be used when interpreting the data as there are many market factors influencing pricing that may or may not be relevant or obvious to the reader.
Good luck in selling or buying your home in Tahoe Donner or the other Tahoe/Truckee communities – please let me know if I can be of service to you!
Gary LaBelle, Realtor
11382 Northwoods Blvd
Truckee, CA 96161
(530) 448-1100
Referrals greatly appreciated
