Market Update - Tahoe Donner - October, 2008
September 2, 2008
From: Gary LaBelle Date: Oct. 2, 2008
Subject: 2008 Tahoe Donner Market Activity for Single Family Homes
Tahoe Donner is a relatively large community in Truckee with approximately 6000 home sites, nearly 85% of which have been completed – so, statistically it is a good area to choose from to ascertain Truckee market activity and pricing trends. Please contact me if you would like more information about market activity for certain price ranges or similar data for other Truckee/Tahoe housing communities.
The data contained herein is obtained from the Tahoe Sierra MLS. This data is believed to be accurate but must be verified prior to submitting a purchase offer.
The following Figure shows Tahoe Donner Single Family Home activity from Jan 2005 through September 2008.
Figure 1. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Sales
Listings can be expected to increase over the summer months – see Figure 3 for the “seasonality” of listings for 2007 – listings peaked in July-Aug of 2007. This is a bit above the average of 156 homes listed for Maythrough December of 2007 (listing numbers are not available from the MLS prior to May 2007).
The average home sales in 2005 were 22 homes/month, 15 homes/month for 2006 and 15 homes/month in 2007. Regarding 2008 so far, we had a couple slow months in Jan and Feb but the activity picked up in Mar with 17 sales, Apr with 15 sales, fell a bit in May with 11 sales, 22 homes in Jun 14 in July and a robust 20 in August and 20 in September. The average single family home sales/month for 2008, through Sept., is now running the same 15/mth as 2006 and 2007. A good indicator for sales activity is the “Days on Market” for an average listing. This peaked in Feb-Mar and declined in April-May but picked up in June to 127 days but fell to 80 days in July. In August this rose slightly to 89 days and dropped to 60 in September. This means that on the average it is now taking roughly 2 months to sell a home in Tahoe Donner vs. 3 – 4 months, earlier in 2008.
Conclusion: Compared to other areas, the Tahoe Donner Market is behaving amazingly well by several measures. Inventory continues to be limited, days-on market has decreased the last two months and as Figure 2 shows, average and median prices seem to be holding up.
Figure 2. Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Median and Average Home Price
It’s a bit difficult making too many conclusions because we have the well recognized market conditions as well as a trend toward larger, more expensive new spec homes entering the market during the early part of 2008. Obviously, these new spec house listings can be expected to slow considerably during the remainder of 2008 due to a dramatic decrease in new spec home building activity. This, along with market conditions, will continue to put pressure on the sales prices for the rest of 2008.
The average of the average price for Jan-Sep of 2008 is $763K which is higher than the $740K average for 2007. This picked up a bit in September which hopefully will continue upward for the remainder of 2008.
So, what’s the future hold? Hard to say but it is clear that building activity for spec homes is significantly down from the previous year. Our local market in Tahoe Donner is served by a number of smaller contractors that have reacted quickly to the market conditions by not building more new homes and inflating inventory.
This means there could be fewer new homes on the market and therefore, keep inventory levels lower which should help sales of existing homes.
Other factors that have affected the local market are lending agency repossessions and short sales. Repossessed properties can be “distressed” and therefore could be sold at a discount to the “accepted” market price. In some cases, an alternative to repossession is a short sale where the lending agency will allow the homeowner to sell the property at a price below that of the loan balance and “forgive” the difference. Such activity, if significant in the future, could adversely affect the average price of homes sold.
What’s the best month to sell a home in Tahoe Donner? Based on 2007, Feb, Mar, Apr and Oct had the most home sales and the Days on Market was shortest in Jun-Aug and Oct. Based on 2008 data it appears that Mar and Apr have been reasonably close to last year sales – but June, July, August and September of 2008 have been much stronger than last year. Excellent result for the Tahoe Donner Market!
Figure 3. 2007 and 2008 Year to Date Sales Data
I hope this data, presented in this form was useful to you. For an instant update, or a discussion about condos/townhomes, please call me and I’ll be pleased to provide you with the most recent data available.
Caution should be used when interpreting the data as there are many market factors influencing pricing that may or may not be relevant or obvious to the reader.
Good luck in selling or buying your home in Tahoe Donner or the other Tahoe/Truckee communities – please let me know if I can be of service to you!
Gary LaBelle, Realtor
11382 Northwoods Blvd
Truckee, CA 96161
(530) 448-1100
Referrals greatly appreciated
