Tahoe Donner Real Estate Data for sold homes

The following report shows Tahoe Donner Real Estate single family home sales activity for the last 5 years. Data includes inventory levels, number of closings, average prices, days on market, sales seasonality, price bands for sales and comments about trends. Helpful for buyers and sellers of Tahoe Donner homes.

The data is obtained from the Tahoe Sierra MLS. Readers of this report are encouraged to work with a Real Estate Agent before making a buy or sell decision for a Tahoe Donner Home. In addition to sales data, buyers need to work with an experienced agent who knows what features are important for a Truckee mountain home. Tahoe Donner Real Estate is a great area to study for Truckee Real Estate Market activity. It has over 6000 homes and therefore presents a large database for meaningful statistical analysis. Tahoe Donner home prices vary from roughly $300K to over $1.5M and ages range from brand new to over 30 years old. Tahoe Donner is the largest and most popular housing development for Truckee Real Estate and approximately 75% of the homes are owned by second homeowners – the majority living in the Bay Area.

Summary for Jan 2017 Tahoe Donner Single Family Home Closings

• Another Ho Hum Month (primarily due to low inventory and seasonality)
  • 14 closings vs. a 5 yr average of 21 homes
  • Days on Market was 49 days in Jan vs. a 5 yr average of 78 days.
  • Inventory of homes for sale was low – 26 in Jan, 29 in Dec. and 29 in Nov – vs. an average of 80. The record 72 closings in Sep-Oct clearly took out some inventory that was not replaced. So, with an inventory of 33% of the average it is clearly a sellers market with slim pickings. As we get more into the ski season, seasonality graphs indicate that buying will pick up and inventory will drop further until spring, at which time inventory will pick up again. Also 6 of 26 active listings are new homes with list prices of $849K to $1.375M – considerably above the $700K or so average prices that Tahoe Donner Homes are selling at. In addition 1 brand new home closed in Jan with 3 more in contract at Jan month end.
• List of New Truckee Real Estate Listings for 7 days or less – Let me know if you want to make an appointment to visit any of these properties
• Click here for all current listings for Tahoe Donner Real Estate

Note that sales for Tahoe Donner Real Estate are extremely seasonal and year-to-year comparisons are significant to get a valid picture of typical sales activity. From a seasonality point of view, Jan-Feb is typically the slowest time of the year with closings increasing in Mar-Nov. The average number of closings for the last five years is 21 homes/month. Keep in mind the difference between closings and when the contract is signed, can be 4-8 weeks for close of escrow for standard sales and considerably longer for short sales and REOs.

 

 

Tahoe Donner Real Estate – Average and Median Prices

Average price for Jan was $743,000 and the median was $700,000. A divergence in the average (aka mean) and the median is due to a distribution that includes more higher or more lower priced home sales. The average price is slightly below $760,000 which was a 5 yr high back in Mar 2014. This is certainly due to lack of lower priced inventory available for sale.

New Tahoe Donner home construction is back again with higher prices per sq ft. New home costs are up because of an increase in permit costs, tighter building specifications, fire sprinklers, energy conservation requirements, building material costs etc. At any rate, to sort out the present cost per sq ft, one must compare recent sales for like homes in terms of age, size, features and condition to determine the present market price. Feb had 26 active homes for sale at the start of the month with 6 of the 26 being brand new homes above $849K asking price and 4 of the 6 being above $1M – so look for a higher average when these homes sell.

Tahoe Donner Real Estate – Average Price per Sq Ft

The recent increased sales of new homes and several higher priced homes have raised the price per sq ft favorably (Brand New homes are running roughly $325 to over $400 per sq ft).

The average cost per sq ft for Jan was $323, Nov and Dec was $317 and $311. Here’s a great graph for how the “mix” of homes sold can affect the average price. Note the large percentage of homes in the < $700K range (less than $700K) and in the less than $900K range (purple band) and the small number less than $500K (red band).

Sold Price vs. Last Listed Price

Historic average sold to list price is approximately 96-98% of last listed price. It was 97% in Jan.

 

Sales of homes priced between $300K and $500K (red) accounted for 34% of unit sales over the last few years. Homes priced between $500K and $700K (green) account for another 34% of sales. So, if you are shopping for a home in one of these price bands be prepared to move quickly on a home that you like – be pre-qualified and ready to purchase.

 

Months of Supply

I’m introducing a new graph showing a “dynamic” months of supply for all homes – see Fig 6 above. This number is obtained by dividing the month end inventory of homes by the monthly sales. For example, if there were 80 homes available and 20 homes sold in that month the months of supply would be 4. The consensus is that 4-5 is typical – a smaller number like 4 or below tends to indicate a sellers market and a larger number like 6 and above would tend to indicate a buyers market. Supply for Sep-Dec were very low – we should see a pickup in supply around April as the ski season winds down.

This graph is dynamic in that it uses the actual closings vs. the actual inventory for each month end instead of an average number of closings (20-21) for each month. From the above graph, Sept and Oct months of supply was about 1 which indicates we are now in a strong sellers market. Clearly, this is primarily for the lower priced homes <$700K. The higher end homes above $1.2M tend toward a buyers market.

Absorption rate is an inverse of this calculation in percent.

New Home Activity

Good News! New Tahoe Donner home construction has picked up considerably in the last year – and many in the higher price ranges have been completed and sold. Contact me if you would like more information about the new construction.

Tahoe Donner Brand New Homes

In Jan, 1 new home closed, 3 were contingent and 6 were active listings. In Dec, 1 new home closed, 2 were contingent and 8 new homes were active.

Conclusion

Contact me if you would like to discuss these results, see additional data or arrange an appointment to view or list any Truckee Real Estate.

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